War and peace

"Si vis pacem para bellum"

("If you want peace, prepare war")

Vegetius

(seeing history, this seems to be a characteristic of human beings in general, like it or not)

A more pacifist but not entirely so, version of Vegetius' words might read: 

"If you want peace, prepare defense".

Far be it from me to criticize profound pacifists (a famous example of such a person is former Pink Floyd musician Roger Waters); on the contrary, I admire them, but my version is realistic in spirit: while it would be ideal to live in a world where we are all brothers, living in harmony and peace with one another, I cannot ignore the fact that human nature is well different. Therefore, I hope that the defense I am referring to would never be utilized in practice. As someone familiar with the military world, I would like to share another 'updated' version of the aforementioned quote: "If you want peace, prepare deterrence"; its translation into Latin would be "Si vis pacem, para deterrentiam."

At this point, I ask myself: can we be sure that no one will ever use weapons of deterrence not only for defensive purposes, but also for offensive purposes? Game theory shows how deterrence can be useful in preventing belligerent behavior, but it is not enough to rule it out entirely. And here we have to throw up our hands...

Given these introductory considerations, the following part of this article is a summary of a conversation with a Google A.I. chatBOT about the issue of wars. Perhaps it might scare someone the fact that given the topic in question, I report information and data from an artificial intelligence, on the other hand a significant part of this post is more focused on empirical and regarding behavioral sciences considerations, given that, for we who have feelings, dealing with ethical-moral issues and ideals on the topic would require a longer article, to this end, I will limit myself to a political-philosophical reference note at the end of the paragraph.

Why do wars break out? A look at the history and causes of conflicts

Throughout history, much humanity has sought peace, but conflict seems to be always present. This leads us to ask ourselves: why do wars break out?

While there is no single answer, several factors can contribute to the outbreak of a war. These factors can be grouped into large categories: geopolitical reasons, ideological reasons, economic reasons, internal political reasons and accidents or calculation errors.

The paradox of powerful empires and peace

The conversation also explored a paradoxical yet subsisted relationship between powerful empires and peace. Periods like the Pax Romana (Roman peace) and the Pax Americana

(American peace) coincided with the domination of a single military power. That's why this domain could have contributed to peace:

• dissuasion: A strong army discourages other powers from starting conflicts due to the high cost of a defeat.
• Stability: A dominant power can enforce international rules and mediate disputes, reducing the need for smaller countries to build their armies.
• Economic integration: Periods of peace often coincide with an increase in trade and economic ties. This interdependence creates economic disincentives to war between great powers, in the contest of a Global Order.

However, it is important to remember that:

Peace is more complex: Military domination alone does not guarantee peace. The Roman Pax and the American Pax had their limits, and the strong military powers can still be involved in conflicts.

Leadership style matters: The way a dominant power exerts its strength is crucial. A peaceful and cooperative leader is more likely to favor stability than an aggressive one.

The human war spirit

The above paradox can be studied using the aforementioned Game theory and the role of the strategies, which can be very useful for understanding the relationship between military domination and peace. Game theory allows us to model situations such as deterrence, where two (or more) powerful nations could choose to cooperate to avoid an expensive war. The theory can analyze different strategies (such as building weapons or offering concessions) and predict the most likely outcome based on the gains and losses of each nation.

Other factors influencing peace and conflict

The conversation then found that religion and territorial claims can influence conflicts or peace-building efforts.

The conversation also explored the impact of technology, which can be a double-edged sword for peace. Here is a summary:

• Positive impact:
• Technology can discourage war by making conflicts extremely destructive. Nuclear weapons are a striking example of this, creating a situation of Mutual Destructive Insurance (MAD) that discourages large-scale wars between the great powers.
• Advances in communication technologies such as satellites and the internet can foster diplomacy and crisis prevention by allowing faster and more transparent communication between governments.

• Negative impact:
• Technological advances can also make war more lethal and efficient, potentially lowering the threshold for conflict.
• With new capabilities concerns about cybersecurity emerge, blurring the boundaries between war and peace, as malicious actors can damage critical infrastructure and cause conflict without resorting to traditional military action.

The importance of building peace

The conversation does not end on a pessimistic note. It stresses the importance of international institutions and diplomacy in peaceful conflict prevention and resolution. Religious communities can also play a role in building peace by promoting values such as forgiveness, reconciliation and social justice.

Understanding the causes of war is essential to prevent others in the future. By addressing these basic issues, encouraging international cooperation and creating a global environment that encourages peace over conflict, we can move towards a more peaceful world.

Political-philosophical note

I conclude by pointing out a text in italian that includes the

political-philosophical topic of peace,

"La vera politica: Kant e Benjamin : la possibilità della giustizia".

Some data

A map of current wars

www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-where-are-the-worlds-ongoing-conflicts-today

Here is a short list of websites of military economy observers in the world: 

• disarmament.unoda.org/convarms/milex/ 
• Sipri.org 
• https://www.milex.org/milex-observatory-in-english/
• en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_highest_military_expenditures
• data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
• ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title = Government_expenditure_on_defence
• International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) -The Military Balance
  www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance
• Transparency International – Defense and Security (TI-DS)
  ti-defence.org/
• enaat.org/
• www.europeforpeace.eu/en/
• Centro studi di geopolitica e relazioni internazionali  https://www.geopolitica.info/dove-e-come-investe-la-difesa-italiana-riflessioni-sul-dpp-2023-2025/

Here a list of human rights obsevers:

• Human Rights Watch
• European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights
• www.osservatoriodiritti.it
• https://www.amnesty.org/en/
• rosalux.eu/en/about/
• Italian Coalition of Freedoms and Civil Rights
• International Institute of Humanitarian Law
• The Civil Liberties Union for Europe (Liberties) https://www.liberties.eu/en/about/organisation

Migration report

Among their consequences, wars often cause huge migratory flows, and this implies bringing the attention of international organizations for global cooperation aimed at tackling these really urgent problems, a reality of despair, as evidenced by the UNHCR agency's Global Trends 2024 report, referenced by the links below, with over 117 million refugees in the past 10 years, and estimates for 2050 ranging from an additional 45 to 216 million migrants just because of climate change (hot climate, desertifications).

Global trends on migration:

• https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends
• https://www.unrefugees.org/news/five-takeaways-from-the-2022-unhcr-global-trends-report/

Minor trafficking

And unfortunately, due to both wars and crime, and to varying degrees of other factors, the squalor of so many adults brings to mind so many children, where there is the exploitation and trafficking 

of minors in the world: I wanted to include here an article from the italian branch of the non-governmental organization Save the Children on the occasion of World Day Against Trafficking in Persons, which falls on July 30th, "Invisible Little Slaves", which highlights some data taken from the 2024 report downloadable here (I have not included an English version here because I saw that the last translation of this report dates back to 2016). I also report an article that clarifies Myth vs. Fact about child trafficking.

“War doesn't determine who is right, only who is left”

Bertrand Russel